Demosophia

An Interesting Take on Iraq

Donald Sensing has a number of posts about the current situation in Iraq after the recent bombings, and about the Zarqawi letter (which admits that al Qaeda is stymied), all of which seem to indicate that the "insurgency" in Iraq is having results approximately the opposite of those the insurgents hoped. The post on the Zarqawi letter observes:

Al Qaeda's leadership, beginning at the top with Osama bin Laden, was convinced that the United States did not have the will to fight. In an interview with bin Laden, conducted by Jamal Isma'il in Afghanistan and broadcast on Middle East television, it is clear that bin Laden's (and hence, all al Qaeda's) operations concept is based on a delusion that he has explained many times: when hurt, the United States always cuts and runs.

We think that the United States is very much weaker than Russia. Based on the reports we received from our brothers who participated in jihad in Somalia, we learned that they saw the weakness, frailty, and cowardice of US troops. Only 80 US troops were killed. Nonetheless, they fled in the heart of darkness, frustrated, after they had caused great commotion about the new world order.

But they have since been stymied by the US, and so have adopted a different strategy. As Sensing observes:

After tacitly admitting that al Qaeda cannot defeat America militarily in Iraq, Zarqawi writes that al Qaeda must turn to terrorism against the Iraqis in order to destabilize the country so much that its return to sovereignty this summer cannot happen effectively.

"So the solution, and only God knows, is that we need to bring the Shia into the battle," the writer of the document said. "It is the only way to prolong the duration of the fight between the infidels and us. If we succeed in dragging them into a sectarian war, this will awaken the sleepy Sunnis who are fearful of destruction and death at the hands" of Shiites. ...

"You noble brothers, leaders of the jihad [meaning other al Qaeda leaders - DS], we do not consider ourselves people who compete against you, nor would we ever aim to achieve glory for ourselves like you did," the writer says. "So if you agree with it, and are convinced of the idea of killing the perverse sects, we stand ready as an army for you to work under your guidance and yield to your command" [emphasis added].

But the Iraqis aren't going to cut and run, either. They increasingly regard the real foreign threat not as the Americans, but the al Qaeda terrorists. Iraqis are impressed with Americans, and are beginning to have "common cause" with America's War on Terror. They have acquired a feel for the stakes, and the nature of the enemy. As one Iraqi puts it:

I’ve always told my friends soon after the war, when most of the attacks were aimed at the American soldiers and the infra structure- they were hardly trying to rebuild with no much help from Iraqis at those times- that I was pretty sure it will be the Americans who will win this struggle. This was not based only on the fact that their case is just, nor their superior technology and resources, but also to another factor that in my opinion plays no less role than the above: they were determined, brave and patient unlike their enemies. They were moving slowly sometimes, taking causalities most of the time, but never hide in their camps or stop patrolling in dangerous areas and very rarely responded irrationally to terrorists’ attacks. I was not the only one who looked impressed and astonished to see those soldiers patrol on foot on the most dangerous areas in Baghdad, where attacks on Americans seemed to be a daily routine, and moreover there was not the slightest sign of fear, anxiety or hostility on their faces, still saluting people smiling to children, as if they are walking in their own land. Now at least one of the major 3 powers, that were a constant threat to their lives, no longer poses such a significant threat and the final outcome bears no doubt in my mind.

So the bottom line is that al Qaeda began with a mistaken opinion that the US was weak, and would cave in as soon as it suffered a few casualties, and they now have a similar opinion of Iraqis. These guys never learn. Well, they wouldn't would they?

Posted by Demosophist at February 12, 2004 01:09 AM | TrackBack