May 15, 2004
Wisdom of the People?
These are the results of a series of polls conducted by Princeton Survey Research for Newsweek from July, 2003 to May, 2004 (lastest was conducted yesterday). The poll is of "registered voters," rather than "likely voters," and is for a two-way race between the candidates. Other polls of "likely voters" have been breaking more toward the President. The vote margin is well within the 4% margin of error for the poll, so for all practical purposes it's still a tie. Note that Kerry has not only failed to pull away from the President over the last few weeks, in spite of a great deal of negative news from Iraq, but the gap actually appears to have been narrowing consistently (though the narrowing itself is probably not significant). There has also been a slight upward trend in undecideds during this period, again within the margin of error.
What this poll doesn't show is the fact that something like 70% of the public feels that things are going badly in Iraq, although that is, in fact, not really the case. Relatively speaking, in terms of the war things are actually quite a bit better this week than last and both the Sunni and Shia "uprisings" are under control.
I would have to say that these poll results are not terribly encouraging for the Kerry Campaign, which could reasonably have expected to gain from the release of the Clarke, Woodward and Wilson books as well as the turmoil in Iraq. But the news is really bad for the mainstream press, because there appears to be a kind of innoculation against the press's persistent drumbeat of negative perspective. And in this sense Americans probably have something in common with Iraqis. Both constituencies seem to have acquired some immunity from the media onslaughts that have pummeled them, which may be because both actually have some grasp and understanding that transcends that of the dominant media and political groups attempting to influence their allegiences. I hestitate to call this "wisdom of the people," but it's as good a tag as any, however tenuous it may be.
Posted by Demosophist at May 15, 2004 09:49 PM | TrackBack