My Iraq briefing is up on Winds of Change. (I'm honored to make a contribution to such a fine group blog, by the way.)
What think you?
I think the one thing I probably ought to have included, but didn't, concerns the role of Iran in all of this. But there weren't many handholds in terms of overtly new manifestations of their meddling this week. Roger Simon has some thoughts on the Mullahcracy's pursuit of nukes which not only raises the obvious concerns, but also implies that if we allow this proliferation to spiral out of control it could jeopardize everything else we're doing, including the fulfillment of Iraq's promise as a free society at the "balance point." We simply can't allow them to gain the sort of blackmail leverage that N. Korea has.
At some point one has to expect the focus to shift directly to Iran, especially if Iranian traction in Iraq keeps slipping. It's clear that the Mullahcracy intends to hold onto power, but are they implementing a sustainable long term policy? As Dan Darling points out (and I don't have a cite, so perhaps he could comment himself) the Iranian government is supported by about 30% of the population, but it happens to be the 30% that has coercive power.
Let's assume that's true. If John Keegan's major thesis is true, that one need not be all that concerned about a "spirited defense of the realm" except in the case of the Western nation-states (Vietnam being a somewhat special case), then what justifies Iran's belligerence other than a certain desperation along with a conviction that "Old Yerp" can be adequately distanced from the US, and that the Security Council can be stalemated? They've lost enormous prestige in Iraq with the virtual checkmate of Sadr, and (if Dan is correct) they've got the heart of Al Qaeda in their hot little hands. It's like having a gold Rolex on your wrist in the heart of East LA. Any sense of security they might derive from it has to be almost entirely illusory. Yet, like the false sense of security that Saddam enjoyed prior to the 2003 invasion, it persists.
There is a lesson to be learnt here about totalitarianism. We seem to systematically overestimate its shrewdness and competence.
Posted by Demosophist at June 10, 2004 07:03 PM | TrackBack