Demosophia

Putin Scoop

Earlier today Russian President Vladimir Putin made a statement that seemed a godsend to the Whitehouse:

"After Sept. 11, 2001, and before the start of the military operation in Iraq, the Russian special services, the intelligence service, received information that officials from Saddam's regime were preparing terrorist attacks in the United States and outside it against the U.S. military and other interests," (MyWay by way of Instapundit)

I have to admit that I was a bit puzzled, not by the news about the intelligence information, but about why Putin would be disseminating it now. It seemed one of those things that was just too good to be true, in light of the 9-11 Commission Report that has been fueling "the gloat" among certain members of the Marxisant intelligentsia, and the press, not to mention the "honorable opposition." Well, a friend of mine who, by virtue of fortune and the winds of change, landed in the very heart of the "neocon cabal," just beamed me a breathtakingly coherent explanation.

First, the intelligence info that Putin's talking about is real. Under normal circumstances he'd probably not be inclined to "share" it simply to help out his buddy George, unless he could net some sort of "quid pro quo." But it appears that the occupation of Iraq has netted us something of a windfall, in the form of documents hoarded by Saddam's Mukhabarat. These documents are, apparently, epic in both magnitude and scope, and they include, among other things, compromising information about certain members of the Russian elite, including some of Putin's supporters (and possibly some enemies as well). The information comes, in part, from documents maintained by the Mukhabarat during the period when Iraq was a Soviet client state, as well as during the "Oil-for-Food" shenanigans in the '90s. At the recent G-8 conference it was made clear to President Putin that it would be "in his interest" to take a public stand that was of some benefit to the Bush administration. The arrangement concerning the release of this information about a possible terrorist attack on the US, by the Saddam regime, was made at that time.

Of course, the Bush folks could have released the information themselves, but it's far more politically expedient to have Putin do it. I've also heard that this is but the tip of the iceberg. There's more from the same epic source. A lot more.

At some point between now and the election in November I would not be suprised if large parts of the 9-11 Commission Report became something of an object of mirth, or simply end up as an incomprehensible memento. The Bush administration and the neoconservatives don't seem particularly uncomfortable, let alone panic striken, in spite of the spate of recent "bad news." The Putin announcement may be winking at us.

Update: Daniel Drezner asks a good question of Putin: "why didn't the information change your mind about the war?" I think the answer may be, at least in part, that the Russians were worried precisely about what we would find in the Mukhabarat's files.

Update 2: Some folks, mostly from the "opposition," have observed that the administration's actions in regard to this incident could be construed as "blackmail." I just feel I ought to point out that using information to compel someone to tell the truth is generally not considered criminal even within what is euphemistically called "international law." But I should probably let Eugene Velokh make the authoritative determination on that.

Posted by Demosophist at June 19, 2004 12:31 AM | TrackBack