Demosophia

July Surprise

Spencer Ackerman and John Judis recently wrote an article in The New Republic Online proposing, on the basis of some anonymous sources in the Pakistani Regime, that the Bush administration is about to make the political and foreign policy equavalent of a "called home run:" placing an order with Pakistani Intelligence for the timely capture or execution of Osama Bin Laden, or some other "high value target," in July. Well fine, but TNR has been slowly achieving a reputation for whackiness, and this accusation raises a few questions about why there isn't more skepticism about a story like this:

1. It seems, at best, rather implausible that having failed to capture or kill these targets for three years, it would be reasonable to make such a home run call now. And if it were possible, why not order up the capture some time ago and then keep the culprit "on ice" until the optimal time in the campaign?

2. What's optimal about July, for heaven sake? Few are paying much attention to the Presidential campaign during the dog days. Indeed many pols in DC are on vacation, as is much of the nation. Plus, springing a surprise in July gives the opposition over three months to nullify its impact. True, it would probably undermine the "convention bounce" expected for Kerry... but it's a bounce, not an election. What goes up inevitably comes down, in other words. The optimal time for a pre-election surprise "home run" would be mid to late october, not July. The Judis, Ackerman article exhibits no real comprehension or understanding of election dynamics, in other words.

3. The area and population from which the story's source arises is a rather notorious cauldron of conspiracy thinking and intrigue. What makes this story any more credible than, say, the far more popular theory that Bush or Mossad were behind the 9/11 attacks? It's all about the oil, you know.

4. And finally, a plausible argument could be made for pressing the Pakistanis to capture an HVT now precisely because of concerns about a terrorist "surprise" during the conventions, or the run up to the election... to acquire intelligence or disrupt communication or support for the terrorists who might be engaged in such an action. This seems a much more plausible line of reasoning for any actual ramp up in the pressure placed on the Pakistanis, than the impossibly low odds of a "called home run." And given their predispotion for intrigue and conspiracy thinking they simply might be interpreting easily comprehensible concerns as a "July Surprise."

But the real issue for me concerns just exactly why TNR is sinking to this level of conspiracy thinking right now? A political motivation for that seems a lot more plausible than a "July Surprise."

Posted by Demosophist at July 9, 2004 08:50 AM | TrackBack