Demosophia

Totalitarianism Is A Hostage Crisis

The death toll in Ossetia's School Number One has now risen above 300. Although this bears some tactical characteristics in common with Waco, for Russia it's their 9-11. It represents Russia's 9-11 not so much because of the numbers killed, but because the targets were so obviously innocent that each child carries the emotional whollup of ten adults. And we can now see the outlines of the desperate strategy that the enemy has been compelled to adopt (largely by our success). It will test the depth of our resolve, and challenge the heights of our creativity, because it brings us right to the heart of the ancient enemy.

Russia failed to recognize the complexity and dangerous nature of the processes taking place in our own country and the world in general. In any case, we have failed to respond to them appropriately. We showed weakness, and the weak are trampled upon. -Vladimir Putin

The problem is that the Russians don't possess a military capable of the sort of "zero defect" aspirations of the US in terms of avoiding "collateral damage." (We can at least realistically attempt such a standard, even though we rarely achieve it.) So when Putin's talk gets tough you can be sure he's speaking about some pretty bloody business, likely to make what the US has been doing look antiseptic by comparison. What our military began to realize some time ago, during the Fallujah campaign, is that the terrorists commit these outrageous acts in order to provoke an over-the-top response. And what the terrorists do not want to see are campaigns (whether bloody or not) that leave in their wake greater individual sovereignty and prosperity, because those kinds of conditions tend to heal the wounds upon which totalitarianism feeds.

Zarqawi, in his famous letter, suggested that once Iraq became sovereign and Al Qaeda was forced to target Iraqi police and national guard then for every Iraqi they killed scores of enemies would be created out of that man's extended family and tribe. And Zarqawi recognized that this was a losing proposition for the Vanguard because there was no way to carry things out in this manner long enough achieve their ends. They'd eventually be swamped by enemies. So he hit upon the idea of Nick Berg. And School Number One in Ossetia either represents a refinement of that strategy, or (more likely) some cross-pollination of totalitarian ideas. For what is totalitarianism, from the enslavement of the helots to the domination of Eastern Europe, if not a massive hostage crisis?

This leaves Islamofascism, for the time being at least, with a hostage strategy, because the world has yet to learn how to cope effectively with hostage situations. In that sense the school in Ossetia is a little like a mini-Iraq, where the tolerance for harming the hostages during their rescue was, for some people, so low that any rescue placing anyone at risk was unacceptable. Putin, who was never inclined toward the use of soft power in the first place, now has precisely the kind of problem that George Bush has been dealing with, on a much larger scale, for most of his presidency. But unlike Bush, Putin hasn't the precision tools, nor does he have a broader vision of human freedom and sovereignty to hold things together when the specter of chaos and calumny inevitably begin to appear.

Putin has a few things to learn from the US and George Bush. Come to think of it, there are lots of students in that disorderly class.

Posted by Demosophist at September 5, 2004 02:37 AM | TrackBack