Demosophia

Who Will Vote?

A great deal has been made of the Democrats' GOTV (get out the vote) program. I was a Democratic organizer and activist for years, and I'm pretty familiar with some of the rigmarole. My thesis is that Kerry's ambiguity is pretty much a wash with Democrats, so their motivation to vote for the candidate is no stronger than in any other year, and probably weaker. In fact, the more hawkish he's compelled to be, in order to match Bush, the less attractive he appears to the Deaniacs. Their motivation comes almost exclusively from their aversion to George Bush.

And, as you get closer to the middle of the partisan spectrum this aversion becomes weaker, and thus the resolve of the marginal voter to brave sturm und drang to vote for Kerry, or to vote at all, grows weak. This is the bane of pure oppositional politics, and it's not even touched upon in the media. It's just hard to inspire people for whom the advantage is diminishing. I haven't heard a single pundit mention this concept. Not one.

Thus, when I came across the following post on the left-leaning group blog Liberty & Power I felt somewhat vindicated:

As I've said before here, I'm "rooting" for Kerry, but I cannot force down my bile long enough to vote for him, as douche-y [as opposed to shit-sandwichy] as he is. Were I to vote, and I still might, it would be for Badnarik, and for largely the reasons David, Rod and Keith put forward. However, although he's neither a douche nor a turd sandwich, he is a wingnut (even by LP standards). I so agree with David's point about the LP (Libertarian Party) putting forward a candidate with name recognition who I could really get behind (Penn Jillette is perfect), but I do see the argument for voting LP to keep the "remnant" moving forward. It's just so hard to pull the lever for a wingnut, even with the lackluster alternatives.

So, I'll probably sit this one out.

Note that if he votes at all, it'll be for a third party, and I suggest that a lot of marginal and undecided voters on the left will either sit it out or adopt this approach and vote for Nader. The more anarchically rebellious will vote for Badnarik.

This feeds into Rusty's "Bad Weather Theme" because I suspect that there will be a lot more people on the left tempted to stay home in inclement weather than on the right. In fact, the closer the vote appears to be the more likely the right-leaning voters will take the trouble to vote for Bush. So all the hoopla about a close election actually helps the President.

Well, that's the theory anyway.

(Cross-posted by Demosophist to Anticipatory Retaliation and The Jawa Report)

Posted by Demosophist at November 1, 2004 08:55 PM | TrackBack