July 08, 2005

Afghanistan Daze

Larry Johnson frets:

Beyond the tragedy of the deaths of US 16 military personnel, this incident raises some disturbing issues. The ability of the Taliban to communicate with the outside world about activities in a remote area of Afghanistan is equal to if not better than that of the United States. War is not simply engagements on the ground, it also involves information flow. The Taliban are showing a very sophisticated capability in this regard.

Well, two points:

First, it's not likely that the communication by the Taliban was accurate regarding the bare facts. Wretchard calls the questions "interesting" rather than disturbing, and unlike Larry, admits that all we have to go on at this point is speculation. The claim the Taliban makes about "spies" is probably correct, at least in the sense that the original recon team was stealthily looking for information about "high value targets." However, it's not clear that any of the "spies" were actually captured by the Taliban, as they claimed. Again, according to Wretchard, that seems unlikely, not so much because such a capture is physically unlikely, but because their own communication suggests they're lying. Not only is the sort of "all-points" contact between the field forces and their spokesman, that so impresses Larry, probably more tenuous than they've represented, but their claim to have a "high ranking" Navy SEAL belies the fact that a high ranking officer probably would not have been on such a recon mission in the first place. Moreover, the information that such a prisoner is being held specifically in Kunar "in good health" is not something that a guerilla force hiding out in the mountains is likely to have communicated for public consumption.

So, there's probably no intentional information content in the centralized Taliban "communication," and it's difficult to tell how the capability to communicate only readily exposed disinformation is "superior" to saying nothing. In fact, in this case the Taliban would have been better off had they said nothing. By talking too much they've revealed more than they intended, which isn't what I'd call "sophistication," exactly.

Second, US forces actually have vastly superior decentralized communication networks between the public and men on the ground in remote places. They're called "milblogs." It's just that the Western and Arab press pay them no heed.

(Cross-posted by Demosophist to Anticipatory Retaliation and The Jawa Report)

Posted by Demosophist at July 8, 2005 09:59 AM | TrackBack
Comments

Hmm. I wonder, why is Larry Johnson disturbed? He is a counter-terrorism expert, and when he is worried...I get nervous.

I read your argument, and it is a good one. The only thing I would say is that the Taliban are not smart people! lol. We already knew that.

That is why they welcomed OBL. Between the bunch of them, they may have come up with half a brain. lol.

Posted by: Rosemary at July 8, 2005 07:25 PM
Hmm. I wonder, why is Larry Johnson disturbed? He is a counter-terrorism expert, and when he is worried...I get nervous.

Larry seems disturbed by almost any policy promoted by the Bush administration. I don't really understand how someone whose instincts are so shakey became an "expert" on terrorism, but he may be very competent at certain kinds of technical analysis. I've suspected that he's a specialist attempting to deal with conditions that require the insight of a generalist.

The other thing that bothers me is that even if I'm wrong, and the "Counter-Vanguard Strategy" doesn't work to destroy Salafist Totalitarianism that doesn't mean that the "realist strategy" favored by folks like Larry Johnson would have worked either.

Indeed, it's my take that we've gone one shot at turning things before we lose all our options. And "realism," (support for friendly autocrats, overt self interest, a criminal justice approach to terrorism) was never a proposition that would have produced appropriate results, for the simple reason that it never has. Whenever we've confronted totalitarianism in the past we were compelled to go to war with it, and to construct a counter-movement.

Posted by: Demosophist at July 8, 2005 09:50 PM

Aha! Are you aware of the site where he posts? That is all I really know about him.

He has written things in the past that didn't make sense, but since I couldn't remember what they were, I didn't believe I had a leg to stand on. If you are convinced, as am I that we need to fight for keeps, then I am persuaded. Good job! :)

Posted by: Rosemary at July 11, 2005 01:13 AM

I forgot the http. lol. Try this one.

Posted by: Rosemary at July 11, 2005 01:14 AM

It works. Funny thing, though. Larry didn't write anything about the London attacks? I wonder if they let him go...? Maybe you are better than you thought!

Posted by: Rosemary at July 11, 2005 01:20 AM

I just found out that Larry left the CIA in 1989 and the State Dept. in 1993! How could he possibly know as much as the President??? Sorry for doubting you. I'm having crow for dinner tonight. Would you like to serve it? lol.

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