August 01, 2004

Latest CNN/Gallup Poll

From The Polling Report, and the first poll released after the Democratic National Convention:

"Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates, and George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates. Would you vote for John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats, or George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans?" If undecided: "As of today, do you lean more toward Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats, or Bush and Cheney, the Republicans?"






.


Bush/
Cheney		 Kerry/
Edwards		 Neither
(vol.)		 Other
(vol.)		 No
Opinion


% % % % %

7/30-31/04

 50 47 1 - 2

7/19-21/04

 47 49 2 - 2

7/8-11/04

 46 50 2 - 2

Not much of a "bounce" is it? My theory is that the false nature of the suppression of real feelings and positions as well as the notion that military service can be a stand in for Presidential competency (George McGovern was a decorated combat pilot) simply insulted the intelligence of many Americans. It's only a theory, but it's rather odd that the best poll results George Bush has seen in quite awhile follow on the heels of the Democrats' big media extravaganza. Ouch!

Posted by Demosophist at August 1, 2004 07:17 PM | TrackBack
Comments

I see a trend. The more they know about Kerry, the better Bush looks.

Posted by: Jane at August 3, 2004 12:53 AM

To be fair, a Newsweek poll puts Kerry/Edwards up by four points, and the changes are all within the margin of error, but I think you're right. At least, with a certain portion of the population that has horse-sense. But if I were running for some major office it sure wouldn't hurt to know that most of the press were routing for me, and (more importantly) against my opponent. Under these conditions a Bush victory would be an enormous repudiation of the press. (Actually, not a bad sub-theme for the campaign, now that I think of it.)

Posted by: Scott (to Jane) at August 3, 2004 10:24 AM

It would (will) be a victory over more than Kerry: left wing ideology, the media, European anti-Americanism, appeasemsnt tendencies, and self centered isolationism.

Posted by: Jane at August 5, 2004 02:35 PM

I believe that the President will be more "presidential" than Kerry by November. But, I also believe that he must campaign more heartily than is his normal mindframe to make this happen. Up to now, his biggest campaign strategy has been to be dutifal as a good steward of the Oval Office. Now, and from the Convention to the last day before voting, he must articulate his case for re-election in a way which attracts some of the Independents without looking weenie to the more libertarian Republicans! He'll do it, in my opinion, but he may be so exhausted that he wishes he would have lost!

Posted by: Paul Richard Strange SR at August 26, 2004 06:53 AM